The Numerical Environmental Prediction Program for the St. Lawrence
What Is Numerical Environmental Prediction?
It consists of activities that use numerical models to simulate the evolution of physical, biological or chemical processes in the St. Lawrence and its watershed in order to predict the state of the corresponding terrestrial and aquatic environment. These activities help predict the changing state of temperature and humidity levels in the soil and vegetation, and the quantity and temperature of the water, ice, currents, sediments, etc.
- Offer improved predictions in order to better understand flows and the St. Lawrence ecosystem.
- Provide a decision-making tool for the integrated management of the St. Lawrence.
- Facilitate the continuous improvement of management practices by all levels of government, as well as by key players from the private sector, to protect the ecosystem and ensure sustainable development.
How Does the Numerical Environmental Prediction Program Work?
- By pooling the expertise of various participants and working together to increase efficiency.
- By carrying out numerical modeling activities using computer systems that rely on observed data.
- By coupling the various participants' models to obtain optimal forecasts.
- Model that generates analyses and forecasts for water levels, flow velocity and water temperature in the St. Lawrence River. The image represents flow speed in meters/second. The simulation area extends from the Port of Montreal to Trois-Rivières for a discharge of 14 500 m3/s at Sorel. The black arrows indicate direction of flow.
Activities and Expected Results: 2011-2026
|Activities||Expected Results: Analyses and Predictions|
|Modeling and assimilation of surface data covering the watersheds of the St. Lawrence tributaries||Humidity and temperature of the soil and vegetation, thickness and density of the snow, vegetation conditions, evaporation above the lakes, carbon flux|
|Hydrological modeling and routing of waters entering via the watersheds of St. Lawrence tributaries||Flow rates, water quality, and availability indicators|
|Hydrodynamic modeling of the St. Lawrence River, Deux Montages lake, des Mille-Îles and des Prairies rivers and the Saint-Anne and Vaudreuil channels||Water levels, flow rates, water quality and availability indicators, currents and temperatures, waves, ice|
|Modeling of the dynamics of the major St. Lawrence ecosystems||Habitat modeling, indicators of ecosystem health, water quality, analyses of socioeconomic impacts|
|Modeling of ocean ice in the St. Lawrence Estuary and the Gulf of St. Lawrence||Improved atmospheric forecasts, ice forecasts, ocean forecasts|
These predictions will allow us to...
- Be proactive before the environment deteriorates
- Provide usable data to manage the levels, quality, and availability of the water; and to manage and preserve the ecosystem
- Analyze the impacts of climate change
- Support public safety actions in the event of an environmental emergency
- Facilitate environmental assessments by analyzing the impacts of potential engineering work
- Support socio-economic activities